What messages do we take away from what's aptly being called the Boston Massacre? How do we read what the voters of Massachusetts, led by the independents who make up a majority of that electorate, were saying on Tuesday?
It's possible to read the victory of Scott Brown narrowly, crediting it to two local factors -- as some Democrats are doing today. One factor: The miserable performance of Martha Coakley, contrasted with the greater personal appeal of the hard-driving and much more passionate Brown. All the king's horses and all the king's men -- and the king, Barack Obama, too -- were not enough to put the Humpty Dumpty of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat together again in the limited time since the White House and Harry Reid finally realized that the stupidly coasting Coakley was letting a sure-thing win slip away.
The other factor involves the national issue of healthcare, but with a unique local twist marking Massachusetts as unrepresentative of the nation as a whole.
Massachusetts already has its own statewide system of mandatory health insurance for all -- passed under Gov. Mitt Romney, with support from Brown (who got away with his inconsistency, just as he successfully soft-pedaled his right-wing views on abortion and other issues, and even his party affiliation). It's a relatively new health insurance system that remains popular.
Bay State residents validly felt they didn't need anything from the feds, and, not so validly, were led to fear that they would lose by having to switch to another system that Republicans loudly and falsely described as cutting benefits, threatening Medicare, raising taxes and adding to worrisome federal deficits.
So you could read this special election as nothing much for Democrats to worry about nationally for November, as long as their candidates were less clueless than Coakley. You could do that, but, as Dick Nixon might say, it would be wrong.
Massachusetts was voting in a national political environment and context of anger -- an anger that (fed by Fox News and the rest of the very effective conservative noise machine) has mushroomed in the year since Obama's historic and promising inauguration.
Part of the anger is rational. Unemployment is at 10% and more, and only Wall Street seems to be benefiting from a supposed recovery. Home foreclosures and credit-card defaults are mounting. We're deep into the Great Recession, as most Americans see it. Yet hard-pressed middle-class citizens see government as hung up for months on what seems to them the secondary issue of health insurance. They want more emphasis on jobs.
But here is where the irrational part comes in. Americans seemingly want politicians to get them jobs -- make a phone call, do something concrete and direct. In fact, the Obama administration instituted an enormous stimulus package for just that purpose, following the classical Keynesian theory that, deficits be damned, it's the job of government during a recession or a depression to spend to pump money into a flagging economy.
Americans, however, don't see much benefit out of the stimulus package, and accept Republican claims that it has produced few jobs even though the White House claims it has preserved or created 2 million jobs.
Voters want the politicians to do more for them. At the same time, they are buying Republican cries about "limited government" and federal overspending. They're saying, in effect, that they want the government to do less about the economy. It makes no sense.
Nevertheless, the Democrats will not prosper by failing to listen to what the voters say they want, rationally or otherwise. And what they don't want, at least for now, is the complicated, hard-to-explain Democratic plans for healthcare reform. The polls show that.
In a better economy, healthcare reform would be having a much easier time. Even in the economy we have, with millions losing their jobs and health insurance, you'd think that voters would see the need to overhaul the deeply flawed medical system. Instead, voters who said in November 2008 that they wanted change now are deeply worried about changes they can't understand (and that Democrats have not adequately explained).
The majority of Americans are still employed and still have employer-based healthcare, or, if they're older, Medicare. They are nervous about losing benefits, susceptible to Republican fearmongering. It's "I've got mine, Jack, screw you." The mood out there is not generous. It never is in hard times.
For the Democrats, it's deja vu -- 1994 all over again. They must stop what they're doing, admit that they have failed again on healthcare and take the next 9 months to build a record on other issues that they can carry to the voters in November.
After that, and assuming the economy puts voters in a sunnier mood, the Democrats (if they still have majorities in Congress) should call the Republicans' bluff and go back to the drawing board on healthcare, seeking bipartisan input.
It's no secret that the Republican "let's start over" talking point is merely code for doing nothing and letting GOP contributors in the health insurance and medical fields continue to profit from an unfair and inefficient status quo. Looking beyond 2010 to 2012, Republicans are going to continue saying no to any Democratic initiative, driven by their rabid-dog base and their own eye for the main chance to deny Obama and the Democrats any credit for any accomplishment, no matter how beneficial it could be to the country. That's the strategy.
"No" worked in Massachusetts on Tuesday. "No" will remain the GOP strategy for the foreseeable future, or at least until the economy picks up. The meaning of Tuesday for Democrats is that they should admit that their deliberations haven't produced a good healthcare bill, give it up for now, pivot to other issues for November and await an opportunity to make the Republicans put up or shut up on healthcare.
Of course, it may be that this really is a conservative country, as the right-wingers love to say -- that no meaningful healthcare reform of private-sector medical insurance, much less a public option or single-payer system, will ever pass. That's a gloomy way to read the message of Massachusetts today. But let's give voters another chance to show the better angels of their nature, I say. It may take a few more years, but surely America is bound to catch up to the rest of the civilized world in assuring healthcare for her people.