The Inquiring Manatee

What Does Warren Buffett Know?

     

Two words to Warren Buffett: Zip it.
   Amid the Great Panic of '08 a couple of weeks ago, the Oracle of Omaha wrote a New York Times op-ed piece urging everyone to buy stock, as he said he was doing.
   So I did. I had always wanted Google and had missed out on its boom, so I bought $10,000 worth of shares at $379.70.
   The market promptly tanked again, even worse than before. Google sank in a few days way below $300. When I checked yesterday, it was back up to $301. Oh, great.
   Come to think of it, I have never made any money on Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway stock. Maybe it's timing, or maybe the stock is simply overrated.
   So you'd think I would have learned not to listen to Buffett, kindly and sensible billionaire though he may be.
   Buffett's well-meaning King Canute act, trying to stem the tide of panic, was reminiscent of the bold move by John D. Rockefeller and his son, John D. Jr., in the dark days of 1929. The aged Standard Oil titan announced, "My son and I are buying stock."
   Well, you know how that worked out.

Obama's Chicago Mafia -- and His Kerry Mafia

  

   Much is being made of the Clinton connections among President-elect Barack Obama's appointees to top positions in his administration. The person with the most serious Clinton connections, of course, is Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State-apparent. There's also White House counsel-to-be Greg Craig (a really good guy), White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and a cast of thousands.
   A bit less is being said about the extent of the Chicago associations among appointees during the transition period. Every president, seemingly, comes to office with a "mafia" of close advisers from his locality. These mafias have had mixed results.     John F. Kennedy had the "Boston mafia," a bunch of political operatives with Irish names -- Larry O'Brien, Kenny O'Donnell, Dave Powers. Jimmy Carter had the "Georgia mafia," including chief of staff Hamilton Jordan and press secretary Jody Powell. Jordan proved unpopular with Congress; his was such a mixture of arrogance and ignorance that House Speaker Tip O'Neill referred to him as "Hannibal Jerkin." And remember that O'Neill was a Democrat.
   Bill Clinton introduced a sort of Arkansas mafia, led by his first chief of staff, Mack McLarty, and including Surgeon General Joycelyn Elders, not to mention White House counsel Vince Foster. None of them did particularly well -- least of all the sensitive Foster, who committed suicide.
   Chicago is equally well represented in the ranks of Obama's first appointees. Emanuel is a twofer -- a Clinton person and a savvy Chicago politician. Also, there is David Axelrod as senior adviser, the supreme campaign strategist of 2008. Another new White House senior adviser is Valerie Jarrett, who will handle intergovernmental relations and public liaison, a key post; she's a well-connected, longtime mentor to both Barack and Michelle Obama. On Monday, Obama named Desiree Rogers as White House social secretary. And on both the Council of Economic Advisers and the new Economic Recovery Advisory Board announced Tuesday is University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee. He'll be staff director and chief economist for the new, independent advisory board to be chaired by former Fed chairman (and very tall guy) Paul Volcker, 81.
   The credentials of these Chicagoans are on a much higher plane than the locals Carter brought with him to Washington, D.C. They either have substantial Washington experience or they're new faces who will fit in well in the capital with their brainpower.
   Aside from the Clinton influence and the Chicago influence, there is, surprisingly, the John Kerry influence. The senator from Massachusetts may have fallen short in his 2004 challenge to George W. Bush, but he has to be happy with the number of his former staffers joining Obama in the White House. I count at least three in prominent positions so far. Kerry could think of this as a consolation prize for being passed over for State.
   They include speechwriting chief Jon Favreau, Domestic Policy Council deputy director Heather Higginbottom and scheduling and advance director Alyssa Mastromonaco. Also, incoming White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was on loanout to the Kerry campaign from Obama's staff in 2004 to help the presidential candidate even as Obama was cruising to easy victory in his Senate race in Illinois.

After Arnold, Who?

        With the presidential election over, California political journalists are looking ahead to the 2010 gubernatorial election. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be termed out. Who will succeed the Austrian-born Republican moderate? Or, as Arnold might say, "Who vill be next to lead Collie-fornia?"
   Some of the names were trotted out Friday at a University of Southern California conference. On the Democratic side, 7 or 8 names are being mentioned. They include Sen. Dianne Feinstein; Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown; San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. I didn't hear anybody mention Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, but let's throw him in, too.
    Among Republicans, two financially well-fixed prospects got top mention: State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and eBay co-founder Meg Whitman. A conservative dark horse: Rep. Darrell Issa.
   There's a consensus that the Democratic nomination is Feinstein's for the taking if she wants it. She's the most popular Democrat in California. She has a habit of deciding these run-or-not-run questions late. Until she decides whether to go for the governorship, the plans of everyone else -- including contributors -- are on hold. She takes up all the air in the room.
   In the end, Feinstein probably will decide that the Senate is a great and lifelong gig. Moreover, the thinking goes, having nearly been beaten in 1994 by the self-financing Republican candidate Michael Huffington (whose wife Arianna was then by his side as a conservative -- my, how things have changed in 14 years), Feinstein is terrified of again facing a wealthy Republican such as Poizner or Whitman.
    Jerry Brown, who served a controversial tenure from 1975-83 and then lost a Senate bid to Pete Wilson, badly wants to be governor again. He's done well as mayor of Oakland and as A.G. since then. He's older (some would say too old, at 70), balder and more considered in his statements, but just as smart. One question is whether young voters will remember him -- and another question is whether older voters will remember him all too well.
    Villaraigosa has a marital scandal on his head. Newsom didn't come off well in the gay-marriage scenario.
    All things considered, if Feinstein says no to the race, it could be one of the most interesting contests in years.

    Also: What's going to become of Schwarzenegger? Does he become a sort of Republican Al Gore, using his global fame to promote greenness? Does he run for the Senate against Barbara Boxer? Does he go back to Hollywood? Does he fade into retirement?

    Stay tuned for the next 2 years as the answers emerge.

The Obama-Clinton Administration: It's Change

   

What's all this complaining that Barack Obama is not ushering in his promised "change" by recycling so many members of the Clinton administration into his official family?
    First of all, it is change -- a welcome change from eight years of George W. Bush and government of the people, by the rich and for the extreme right.
    And to the extent that we're witnessing change back to experienced people from the days of Bill Clinton's presidency, that's a good thing. The Clinton administration, at least by its second term, was competent. The nation was prosperous and at relative peace. We had a budget surplus. The personnel in the White House, the cabinet and subcabinet were smart, dedicated and well-educated. Why ignore their brains and experience merely for the sake of having "new faces?"
    There already are some new faces with Barack, Michelle and the girls, including a new Chicago Mafia including mentor Valerie Jarrett. Phil Schiliro from Capitol Hill is new to the executive branch as Obama's liaison with Congress. Tim Geithner, not well known to the general public until now, is getting a well-deserved and timely promotion from the Fed to Treasury. There will be more. Give Obama time in this transition period and through his term to find new talent. For now, his choices with a Clinton background show a penchant for thoughtful, moderate, centrist government -- which most voters outside the liberal left would say they wanted.
     Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton, who effectively comes with her to the State Department. Rahm Emanuel. Greg Craig as White House counsel. Bill Richardson as Commerce secretary, perhaps. Maybe former Marine Gen. James Jones as national security adviser. These and other announced or leaked selections represent dash, panache and star quality as well as proven leadership. Obama is making promising decisions already.
    And it's enough change for me.
   

McCain Insiders in Denial About Damage Palin Caused

  

    Campaign strategists for Barack Obama and John McCain disagreed at a polite postmortem session Friday over whether Sarah Palin was a well-considered pick as the Republican vice-presidential nominee.
   Advisers to McCain insisted that the Alaska governor was "a wise pick" who helped McCain surge to a lead in polling until the September collapse of Lehman Brothers brought economic issues to the fore and all but fatally handicapped the GOP ticket. The McCain advisers also blamed President George W. Bush's unpopular record for McCain's loss.
   Obama campaign insiders on the discussion panels at the University of Southern California said Palin gave them an initial scare but soon blew herself up with shaky performances in televised interviews with ABC's Charlie Gibson and CBS's Katie Couric. Obama advisers said Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman would have been of more help to McCain as a running mate than Palin was.
   The Obama Democrats joined Republican panelists in largely crediting the sudden economic meltdown for Obama's win. The Democrats also credited Obama's early voter-registration drives in battleground states and the Illinois senator's relentless focus on presenting himself as a credible president and tying McCain to Bush.
   Obama's campaign was surprised when McCain tapped Palin, Democratic panelists indicated. "My response was, 'Alaska has a female governor?'" Obama deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand said.
   Adam Mendelsohn, a McCain adviser, termed the choice of Palin "tactically the right thing to do" to squelch favorable public reaction to Obama's "incredible" nomination acceptance speech before a stadium crowd of 80,000 at the Democratic convention in Denver. Greg Jenkins, another senior McCain adviser, said Palin was a "wise pick" and "a logical choice" to secure the loyalty of the GOP base.
   Mendelsohn recalled that the polls were even at the point McCain was deciding on a running mate and that the Republicans "knew they had to pick a game-changer that also wasn't going to collapse the Republican base." The implication was that Lieberman would have alienated the base.
   Michael DuHaime, McCain's political director, said Palin at first engendered huge enthusiasm from the GOP grassroots and appealed to working women and moderate Republicans and independents. Polls in mid-September showed McCain in the lead. "Then Lehman Brothers collapsed," DuHaime said, and McCain's road got tougher.
   The GOP convention was "probably the peak" when McCain's aides thought he could win, Mendelsohn said. "Our numbers with women were going up," he said, and the Republican side felt that their ticket "had seized the maverick concept."
   With the Lehman Brothers crash, "the ground just fell out," Mendelsohn said. Once the economic collapse settled in, everybody realized that this was just not going to work." Voters felt it was riskier to stick with a Republican who might continue Bush's policies than to take a chance on the less experienced Obama, Mendelsohn said.
   David Binder, Obama's chief pollster, acknowledged that "the Palin pick did take a lot of steam out of the Democratic convention." For 10 days, McCain took the lead in polling. "We were losing suburban women," though not working-class women, Hildebrand said. Obama chief strategist David Axelrod "always worried from Day One that she (Palin) could help him (McCain)," said Obama senior adviser Linda Douglass.
   But after the ABC and CBS interviews, it was clear that Palin "was just not going to wear well" over the closing 8 weeks, Hildebrand said.
   DuHaime agreed that the Palin bump in the polls "did not carry all the way through Election Day." But he voiced no criticism of her and did not subscribe to the widely held view that she became a drag on the ticket.
    McCain adviser Greg Strimple said "we allowed the Obama people to define her as far, far, far right."
    Binder and Hildebrand said Lieberman would have done McCain more good. Running the 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee in the fall election "could have been very damaging for the Democratic Party," Binder said. Lieberman or another Democrat would have underscored "the maverick thing" for McCain while removing Obama's essential argument that he would end partisanship in Washington, Hildebrand said.
    Hildebrand criticized McCain's side for its emphasis on appeasing the GOP base. "In the end, in an election, you've got to stop worrying about your base, because in the end your base is going to be with you," allowing a candidate to woo independents, he said. But Jenkins noted that the GOP base had stayed home in 1992, when President George H. W. Bush lost re-election to Democrat Bill Clinton.
    Aside from economic issues, Bill and Hillary Clinton aided Obama after their epic battle with the Illinois senator during the primaries, Douglass said. "I don't think she gets enough credit for what a team playher she was after the  primaries," Douglass said. Sen. Clinton was still "in pain" after getting 18 million votes but falling short of nomination, Douglass said. "She did the psychological work to get herself on the team but she was there by the convention," Douglass said. It was harder for Clinton's husband to get on board, but the former president delivered a helpful convention speech, Douglass said.
    Because of Bush's record-low approval ratings, it would have been hard for any Republican to win, McCain's strategists said. DuHaime said McCain "inherited a damaged party brand. We lost getting the benefit of the doubt" because of the Iraq war and the Bush administration's response to Hurricane Katrina, he said.
    After the economic collapse, the McCain forces understood "you have to run the table in every state," DuHaime said. "You never give up, but you do realize that it is bad," he said.
    For Obama's win Hildebrand also credited the turnout and heavy favor by voters aged 18-29, along with the large number of new voters Obama registered in battleground states. In 9 states, he said, the Obama "ground game" operation registered "more voters than our majority of victory" in states that produced 121 electoral votes for Obama. Without wins there, Obama would have fallen short of victory with only 244 electoral votes, 26 fewer than required to win, Hildebrand said.

   The two-day post-election conference of campaign officials and political reporters, concluding Saturday, is co-sponsored by the Politico website and USC's Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics.

  
   
   
  

Mark Begich Isn't Perfect, But He Sure Beats a Sen. Sarah Palin

      

Democrat Mark Begich's narrow victory over Ted Stevens not only turns over to Alaska Democrats a Senate seat that has belonged to Republicans for 40 years. The win (by fewer than 4,000 votes after a long and agonizing count of absentee ballots) cuts the super-ambitious Gov. Sarah Palin off from promotion to national-level political office for some time to come.
   It's a setback for Palin because had the 85-year-old Stevens won, even Senate Republicans were not going to honor what would have been Alaskans' disgraceful re-election of a felon convicted of corruption. Stevens would have been kicked out of the Senate, though the procedure would have taken some time. The vacancy would have created the need for a special election.
    Palin could have appointed herself. She denied any intention to do so. But she also had the option of stepping down in a deal with her Republican lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, to name her to the Senate. That's how I figure things would have gone.
    Palin's only short-term choice now is to challenge incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (originally appointed by her father, the former governor and senator Frank Murkowski) when she comes up in the 2010 Republican primary. From now on, Palin will be trying to paint Ms Murkowski as a female member of the Alaska GOP old-boys' network. Palin will be stalking Murkowski like a hunter stalks a moose.
    However, Murkowski already can feel Palin's hot breath gaining on her. Murkowski is smart and well-connected enough to mend any fences that need repair and to keep a step ahead of Wasilla Barbie as the governor mulls the risky step of challenging an incumbent of her own party.
    It may take Palin six years, to 2014, to reach the Senate by successfully challenging Begich for re-election. Begich, like Murkowski, will have an eye on Palin and in any case is just as conservative and pro-development (including ANWR drilling) as any Alaska Republican. He won't automatically be vulnerable.
    This scenario assumes, of course, that Palin won't be elected president of the United States in 2012. Right now, the GOP appears crazy enough to nominate her, but the American public does not appear crazy enough to elect her.
    I'd bet that Sarah Palin is going nowhere outside of Alaska for the foreseeable future. Whew!

Great News at House Energy and Commerce

      

The surprise dumping of 82-year-old Rep. John Dingell (D-GM, Ford and Chrysler) in favor of Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) as chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee is great news for the environment, for healthcare reform and even, in the long run, for the beleaguered U.S. auto industry whose retrograde managements Dingell championed so long and stubbornly.
    I have known Henry Waxman since 1966, 8 years before he was first elected to the House. He has impressed me over the years, steadily building up influence and fame with an eye for headlines and an unwillingness to overlook Republican scandals. He is partisan in the best way, acting as a tough idealist in the interest of taxpayers. His staff is one of the best on the Hill -- recognized as so sharp that Barack Obama has selected Phil Schiliro, Waxman's longtime chief of staff, to head White House liaison with Congress for the new Democratic administration.
    Waxman did a fine job as chair of the Government Reform and Oversight Committee, while chafing for years as Dingell's No. 2 at Energy and Commerce as Detroit's man in Congress fought against tougher fuel economy standards and efforts to stem climate change. Plainly, Waxman saw that the time to act was now, as the auto industry has lost its clout along with its solvency. He made a bold move, which paid off. It was time for the irascible Dingell to dangle.
   Go, Henry! We'll be having even more fun watching you run hearings from now on.

Obama's Cabinet Process Off to Good Start

  

Though it's not official yet, the leaked offer of the Health and Human Services post to Tom Daschle represents a high-quality initial cabinet pick by President-elect Barack Obama. The choice is encouraging, and plays to Daschle's record of interest in healthcare. But it also takes Daschle out of the running for secretary of State, putting the spotlight even more on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.
   Newspaper reports today indicate that Hillary is having mixed thoughts about accepting the position at Foggy Bottom if Obama offers it. Reports also say that the Clinton camp is gratified by the offer. If Hillary is truly ambivalent about losing her Senate independence and the chance in the Senate to work on domestic issues, which make up her stronger pantsuit than foreign policy is, then Obama is freer to ultimately reject the duly grateful Hillary (and her Bill baggage) in favor of Chuck Hagel, John Kerry, Richard Holbrooke or a number of other top prospects. (Maureen Dowd is unfair in The New York Times today in describing Kerry as "pompous" and saying he can't wait to "swan around in those striped pants." I know Kerry from the 2004 campaign, and he can be as down-to-earth as anyone.)
   Speaking of senators, like Daschle, who were bounced by Republicans in earlier elections, why not bring back Georgia's Max Cleland to Washington as Veterans Affairs secretary?
   And here's hoping that Cleland will get a form of revenge for Saxby Chambliss' outrageous 2002 ads linking the badly wounded Vietnam veteran with terrorists; Chambliss is in a Dec. 2 runoff. But I predict that Chambliss will beat Democrat Jim Martin because black turnout in Obama's absence will be down from Nov. 4. The Democratic count will peak at 59 senators -- assuming that Al Franken wins the Minnesota recount, which starts today.

Earmarking Ted Stevens

  

Here's how Senate Republicans -- and Senate Democrats -- should handle the problem of Ted Stevens' status in their chamber. Instead of expelling the 84-year-old meanie from the Senate, or removing him from the GOP caucus, or censuring him, or waiting until the final votes are counted in Alaska before deciding what to do with this convicted felon, senators should simply earmark Stevens.
   Mac the Tattoo Artist should be brought from the Adams-Morgan district of D.C. to tattoo dollar signs on Stevens' earlobes. Earmarking the king of earmarks is a just and fitting punishment for his corruption in accepting $250,000 in freebies and failing to report the gifts.

FW: The George W. Bush Library and its Bushisms

 

This item forwarded to me in an e-mail from a friend:

THE GEORGE W. BUSH PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY

  The George W. Bush Presidential Library is now in the planning stages and accepting donations. The Library will include:

  -- The Hurricane Katrina Room, which is still under construction.
  -- The Alberto Gonzales Room, where you won't be able to remember anything.
  -- The Texas Air National Guard Room, where you don't even have to show up.
  -- (I added this one:) The Scooter Libby Room, which leaks dangerously.
  -- The Walter Reed Hospital Room, where they don't let you in.
  -- The Guantanamo Bay Room, where they don't let you out.
  -- The Weapons of Mass Destruction Room, which no one has been able to find.
  -- The National Debt Room, which is huge and has no ceiling.
  -- The Tax Cut Room, with entry only to the wealthy.
  -- The Economy Room, which is in the toilet.
  -- The Iraq War Room. (After you complete your first visit, they make you go back for a second, third, fourth and sometimes fifth visit.)
  -- The Dick Cheney Room, in the famous undisclosed location, complete with shotgun gallery.
  -- The Environmental Conservation Room, still empty.
  -- The Supreme Gift Shop, where you can buy an election.
  -- The Airport Men's Room, where you can meet some of your favorite Republican Senators.
  -- The Decider Room, complete with dartboard, Magic 8-Ball, Ouija board, dice, coins and straws.
  Note: The Library will feature an electron microscope to help you locate and view the President's accomplishments.

   The Library will also include many famous quotes by George W. Bush:

  -- "The vast majority of our imports come from outside the country."
  -- "If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure."
  -- "Republicans understand the importance of bondage between a mother and child."
  -- "No senior citizen should ever have to choose between prescription drugs and medicine."
  -- I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy -- but that could change."
  -- "One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared.'"
  -- "Verbosity leads to unclear, inarticulate things."
  -- "I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future."
  -- "The future will be better tomorrow."
  -- We're going to have the best-educated American people in the world."
  -- "One of the great things about books is sometimes there are some fantastic pictures." (Said during an education photo-op.)
  -- "Illegitimacy is something we should talk about in terms of not having it."
  -- "We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
  -- It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
  -- "I stand by all the misstatements that I've made." -- George W. Bush to Sam Donaldson.

PLEASE GIVE GENEROUSLY!

J. Abramoff, Co-Chair
G. W. Bush Presidential Library Board of Directors

I'm going to miss Bush!